Bulls Attempting To Take Control On Positive Technicals

 May 24 2016     David Templeton
The market is in a seasonally weak period, i.e., all the sell in May mantra, and this has created a number of bearish technical setups for the S&P 500 Index. I am not showing all of them; however, the bulls are making an effort to kill off the head and shoulder top pattern (dashed lines). This market action is creating two potential bull flag breakouts. The breakout is also resulting in the S&P 50...

A Mismatch Between Investor Sentiment And Allocation Surveys

 May 21 2016     David Templeton
On a monthly basis the American Association of Individual Investors surveys its members on the asset allocation of their members investment holdings. In the April survey, on average, its members noted their equity exposure equaled about 64%, above the average of 60%. The bond allocation was equal to the long term average, while cash came in below average. What is interesting about these stated all...

Equity Market Headwinds Positioned To Subside

 May 20 2016     David Templeton
One thing investors in equities know is the market has essentially traded sideways for nearly two years. During this two year period, this sideways chop has included sharp pullbacks, one in late 2014, two in 2015 and the latest in February of this year. For long term investors this can be disconcerting for sure, so what headwinds are influencing the equity markets and will they subside any time so...

How to Calculate Social Security Spousal Benefits

 May 10 2016     Anna Pfaehler
Part of my role is to serve as a resource for our clients and advisors by answering their financial planning questions. Today’s post highlights a question I’ve received several times in various forms. Q: A wife started taking Social Security at age 62 and is now 70. The husband now wants to file for benefits at age 70. Will the wife’s benefit increase? A: In general, spousal b...

Continued Growth In Oil Supply Likely Leads To Lower Crude Oil Price

 May 8 2016     David Templeton
WTI Crude has rebounded over 70% to $44.60/bbl from its $26/bbl low reached on February 11th. This price recovery has occurred while supply continues to grow at an unabated pace as can be seen in the below chart.The U.S. Energy Information Administration's summer 2016 fuels outlook (PDF) is forecasting continued supply growth with the expectation oil prices will average $35/bbl this summer. Drivin...

Broad Based Bearish Market Sentiment

 May 7 2016     David Templeton
With the 'sell in May' topic seeming to lead much of the commentary over the last few weeks, investors are exiting equities and allocating the funds to money market and fixed income investments. During this first week in May, Lipper notes:For the week fund investors were net redeemers of fund assets (including those of conventional funds and exchange-traded funds [ETFs]), pulling out a net $2.8 bi...

Dividend Payers Trouncing Non-Payers Through April

 May 2 2016     David Templeton
If one facet of the market that has become clear this year is that companies paying a dividend are being rewarded. The below table shows data reported by S&P Dow Jones Indices on the average performance of dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index versus their non-paying counterparts. Year to date through April the payers average return return equals 6.51% versus the non-payers return of .89%. The spre...

Dogs Of The Dow Outpacing Broader Market

 May 1 2016     David Templeton
This year's performance of the Dogs of the Dow is indicative of investor interest in dividend paying stocks. The Dogs of the Dow strategy is one where investors select the ten stocks that have the highest dividend yield from the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) after the close of business on the last trading day of the year. Once the ten stocks are determined, an investor invests an...

Sell In May, But It Is A Presidential Election Year

 April 30 2016     David Templeton
With May just around the corner, articles covering the "Sell in May' phenomenon are not in short supply and this article will add to the list. Sometimes the strategy is referred to as the Halloween indicator as investors are expected to get back into the market after Halloween. On the surface, it seems pretty clear that a Sell in May strategy is one that bears fruit for investors. In an article fr...

Last Call for File and Suspend

 April 22 2016     Anna Pfaehler
Late last year we wrote about the end of two Social Security claiming strategies: (1) file and suspend and (2) restricted application. As a reminder, the April 29 deadline for file and suspend is fast approaching. File and suspend allows a person to open their file with the Social Security Administration and voluntarily suspend payment of benefits. Doing so has three major benefits: ·&n...
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