Even with all the Fed's intervention and their attempt to force investors into risk assets, The Chart of the Day's recent market chart notes the current rally is both below average in duration and magnitude."The Dow made another post-financial crisis rally high Thursday on the news that the Fed will embark on a third round of quantitative easing (a.k.a. QE3). To provide some perspective on the current Dow rally, all major market rallies of the last 112 years are plotted on today's chart. Each do...  Read more...

Fixed income manager, Jeffry Gundlach, sat down for an interview on Bloomberg recently. In the interview he discusses the risk that has developed in the bond market, specifically in treasuries. His firm DoubleLine, is considering expanding into equity fund management as well.h/t: Abnormal Returns  Read more...

One of the services provided by Thomson Reuters (TRI) is they aggregate financial data from analyst. TRI recently updated/aggregated all the analyst data as it relates to earnings and revenues for the S&P 500 Index companies for the third quarter. TRI notes:"...companies in the S&P 500 are likely to post the slowest annual revenue growth rate [for Q3] in the last decade (barring the 2008/2009 financial crisis) and the trend seems to be getting worse, with more disappointments in store."From T...  Read more...

On a year to date basis ending August 31, 2012, the return of the dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index trails the return of the non payers. The average return of the payers equals 10.37% versus 12.70% for the non payers. For the 12-month period the payers average return totals 14.70% versus 10.01% for the non payers. On a weighted basis though, the S&P 500 Index return equals 18.00% versus the 14.70% for the payers. Apple's (AAPL) return for the eight and twelve month periods has contributed 2.1...  Read more...

The employment situation report released this morning indicated non-farm payrolls increased by 96,000 versus an estimated increase of 125,000. The unemployment rate declined to 8.1% versus 8.3% in the prior month. The total number of unemployed remained at 12.5 million people so one would not expect the unemployment rate to decline. However, the decline in the rate is due entirely to the fact 368,000 individuals dropped out of the labor force. The participation rate fell to 6.5%, the lowest leve...  Read more...

From a business cycle perspective, Fidelity recently released a report that indicated the risk of a recession in the U.S. was rising. Although the rising recession risk is low, the report cited weak "external" factors as the cause. Also, these weak external factors may be impacting company earnings expectations as noted in yesterday's post: Companies Lowering Earnings Guidance For Third Quarter. From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsIn spite of this higher risk, the U.S. and Japan remain in the...  Read more...

In spite of the high level of negative earnings guidance issued by companies for the third quarter, the market is shaking of this news and moving higher. Factset reports,"For Q3 2012, 80 S&P 500 companies have issued negative EPS guidance while 21 companies have issued positive EPS guidance. If 80 is the final number of companies issuing negative EPS guidance for the quarter, it will mark the second highest number for a quarter during the past three years, only trailing the number recorded in Q4...  Read more...

Broadly, hedge funds have mostly trailed their market benchmarks; however, investors may find interest in tracking changes in positions and sectors for the hedge fund group. Investors should keep in mind that hedge fund positions are reported once a quarter and the report can be as late as 45 days following a quarter. Consequently, a fund's report may not be reflective of the fund's current allocations.A recent Factset report notes changes in hedge fund positions and sector allocations in the se...  Read more...

With the looming fiscal cliff facing investors at the start of 2013, the marginal tax rate on dividends would increase to as high as 43.4% versus the current 15% rate. Investors are asking if this substantial increase will negatively impact the performance of dividend paying stocks. Copeland Capital Management recently published a white paper analyzing the impact of changing tax rates and the performance of dividend paying stocks vis-à-vis the overall market. The firm's research concluded:The pe...  Read more...

Howard Silverblatt, Senior Index Analyst for S&P Dow Jones Indices, recently noted the number of dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index has grown to 402 companies. This number reaches a level last seen in 1999. For 2012, thirteen companies have initiated dividend payments to date.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsAccording to Silverblatt the dollar dividend payment for S&P 500 companies is up 14.7% so far this year. Additionally, he notes, "We expect a record $275 billion in S&P 500 dividends...  Read more...