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Dividend Payers Underperformed In July

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 03, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Much is made by some investment managers that dividend payers hold up well in market downturns. Generally, we would agree that is the case; however, this performance advantage does not always bear out and one must look at the underlying cash flow of individual companies. A case in point is the performance of the payers in July.As the below table shows the average performance of the payers underperformed the non-payers by almost two full percentage points. On a year to date basis the average retu...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: August 3, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 03, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
With July in the books, investors experienced the negatives of what tends to be a weak seasonal period for the equity markets. The worst performing segment of the U.S. market continued to be the pullback in small company stocks as represented by the Russell 2000 index. Small caps declined 7.3% in July while the larger cap stocks represented by the S&P 500 Index fell 2.8%. Small caps are now down 4.2% year to date while the S&P 500 Index remains higher by 4.2%.For the most part economic news this...  Read more...

No Alternative Other Than Stocks

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, August 02, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Consuelo Mack of WealthTrack recently interviewed Jason Trennert, Managing Partner and Chief Investment Strategist of Strategas Research Partners. As WealthTrack notes, "Trennert is widely followed by institutional investors in the money management and hedge fund world, and is identified as one of “Wall Street’s Best Minds” by Barron’s."In the interview, Trennert believes several factors are leaving investors with no investment alternatives other than stocks. Two reasons he cites are one, fina...  Read more...

Equity Put/Call Ratio Spikes To Above 1.0

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, August 02, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
In our earlier post today we noted the potential oversold conditions in the equity markets. When reviewing other technical data this morning, I was surprised to see the large jump in the CBOE equity put/call ratio on Friday which put the ratio above 1.0. We have noted in prior posts over the years that this sentiment ratio is most predictive of future market direction when the ratio is at extreme levels. In short,The equity P/C ratio tends to measure the sentiment of the individual investor by d...  Read more...

Market Looking Oversold

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, August 02, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Both the New York Stock Exchange Index (NYA) and the S&P 500 Index (SPX) are down from their recent highs 3.7% and 3.2%, respectively. Although the magnitude of the declines is not large, the indices are looking oversold. The relative strength index, the MACD indicator and the stochastic indicator are indicating oversold levels as well. It should be noted that the MACD is less useful as an oversold market indicator as it is unbounded. The MACD is most useful in determining market turning points ...  Read more...

Is This The Much Awaited Market Pullback?

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, July 31, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Today the S&P 500 Index fell 2% and this takes the Index into negative territory for the month of July: -1.51% on a price only basis. For the year the S&P 500 Index remains in positive territory, up 4.44% on a price only basis. The question for investors is whether this weak July and significant decline on the last day of July is a precursor to further market weakness. Answering the question may be important as a number of investors are waiting to "buy on the dip." Is July, and more importantly,...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: July 27, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, July 27, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Except for the pullback in the equity markets on Friday, this past week was pretty uneventful. I guess I should say uneventful except for small cap stock investors. Much has been written about the small cap weakness year to date and whether it is a precursor to broader market weakness ahead. For the week, small caps were down .6% and is the only major U.S. index down year to date, i.e., down 1.6%.For the coming week investors will need to navigate a slew of economic and earnings reports. I think...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: July 27, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, July 27, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Except for the pullback in the equity markets on Friday, this past week was pretty uneventful. I guess I should say uneventful except for small cap stock investors. Much has been written about the small cap weakness year to date and whether it is a precursor to broader market weakness ahead. For the week, small caps were down .6% and is the only major U.S. index down year to date, i.e., down 1.6%.For the coming week investors will need to navigate a slew of economic and earnings reports. I think...  Read more...

Equity Market May Simply Be Under Owned

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, July 24, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
It seemed odd that back in May we posted an article that said sentiment data may be suggesting the equity markets were oversold. At that time the equity markets really had not sold off but had pretty much traded sideways around the S&P 500 level of 1,878. What prompted our comment was the fact bullish individual investor sentiment had declined to 28%, which is one standard deviation below its long term average. Since the time the article was published, the S&P 500 Index is up nearly 6%. Well, to...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: July 20, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, July 20, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
This past week was an event filled one as geopolitical concerns rose to the top of investor worries with issues in Ukraine. As Josh Brown noted in an article he posted last week, these geopolitical events seem to be ever present. He noted though, the change this past week was investor awareness became focused on these concerns with the downing of the Malaysian airliner over Ukraine. In spite of this type of headlines news, the S&P 500 Index manged to generate a positive return of .54% for the we...  Read more...
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