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Week Ahead Magazine: June 22, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, June 22, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Last week continued to see equity markets in the U.S. move higher. All major U.S indices were higher by greater than 1% on the week with the Russell 2000 (small cap) advancing 2.2%. This advance has continued in spite of the often cited complacency evident in the market, vis-à-vis the low level of the VIX, and the lack of a meaningful correction over the past few years. As we noted in a post earlier this week, we do believe the market has entered the "denial stage" from a sentiment perspectiv...  Read more...
Many of the market statistics that measure investor sentiment suggests investors have become too complacent regarding this bull market. Strategist view this complacency as a contrarian indicator which raises a cautionary flag regarding further advances in the equity market. With the VIX Index trading at a record low level under 11, this index does indicate there is a low level of fear in the market. More detail on the VIX can be reviewed at one of our earlier posts, What Is The VIX Index.From Th...  Read more...

Companies Continue With A Heightened Focus On Share Buybacks

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, June 19, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
S&P Dow Jones Indices' preliminary report on first quarter 2014 share buybacks shows companies have not shied away from buying back shares in spite of record market highs. On a year over year basis buybacks increased 59% to $159.28 billion versus $99.97 billion in Q1 2013. Combining the buyback amount with the dividends paid, on a YOY basis the combination increased 41%. The buyback leader in the first quarter is Apple (AAPL), buying back $18 billion which set an S&P 500 Index record. Additional...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: June 15, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, June 15, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
The second trading week of June saw most U.S. broad market indices down less than 1% on the week. Only the Russell 2000 small cap index has a year to date negative return of -.1%. As the below chart of the "weekly" S&P 500 Index shows, the market has been in a strong uptrend since late 2011. Missing from the advance this year is significant volume during up weeks for the market. This seems to be indicative of investor skepticism about the market's continued advance without a 10+% correction whic...  Read more...

Active Share And Equal Weighted Investment Strategies

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, June 15, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
S&P Dow Jones Indices recently released an interesting white paper, Equal-Weight Benchmarking: Raising the Monkey Bars, that provides detail on why equal weighted benchmarks have mostly outperformed the cap weighted S&P 500 Index historically. Importantly, S&P notes,"While cap-weighted indices measure many things, there is (at least) one important thing that they do not measure. The return of a cap-weighted index represents the performance of the average invested dollar, not the performance of t...  Read more...

Crisis Impact On Markets

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, June 14, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
The resurgent conflict between the Sunnis and the Shiites in Iraq has raised the issue of its potential impact on investment markets. Additionally, this weekend it is being reported that the U.S. is moving an aircraft carrier into the Gulf. Of course, this would enable the U.S. to launch airstrikes within Iraqi territory.Investors will need to keep in perspective the impact these crisis events historically have on equity markets. At the time the issues in Syria arose, S&P Capital IQ prepared a r...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: June 8, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, June 08, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
With the 2.7% increase in the small cap Russell 2000 Index last week, most broader U.S. market indices are now showing positive returns for 2014: S&P 500 Index: +5.5%Dow Jones Industrial Average: +2.1%Russell 2000 Index: +.1%Wilshire 5000 Index: +4.9%Nasdaq Composite: +3.5%Many of last week's economic reports were positive and the market seems to be satisfied with a 200,000 handle on the non farm payroll reports.The ECB came through on the monetary stimulus front which included a negative rate o...  Read more...

Are Investors Really Holding A Lot Of Cash?

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, June 08, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
An article making the rounds on the internet this weekend is one that appeared in the New York Times on Friday, Fear of Equities Drives More Investors to Cash. The article cites a State Street (STT) study titled, Stashing Cash Under the Mattress. An important footnote in the study notes the asset allocation question is referring to what an investor is doing with their monthly 'saving/investing' budget. From the study, survey participants indicated they were placing 44% of their monthly funds int...  Read more...

Dividend Payers' Return Remains Strong Through May

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, June 05, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
We noted in an early March post that dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index were under performing the non payers by over 600 basis points during the first two months of 2014. Near that same time the market was beginning a transition out of momentum and growth stocks into value oriented equities. As fate would have it, many dividend payers screen as value type stocks. As a result, since the end of February, the dividend payers have significantly outperformed their non dividend paying counterparts i...  Read more...
Much has been made of the decline in interest rates since the start of 2014. Many investors expected interest rates would continue to rise as a result of the Fed's "taper" announcement in May of last year. The market action subsequent to the taper announcement certainly saw the yield on the 10-year Treasury rise, ultimately reaching over 3% at year end 2013. So far in 2014 though, the yield on the 10-year Treasury has managed to decline to just under 2.5%.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsI...  Read more...
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