Horan - Health. Wealth. Life

Ukraine/Russia War: Impact On The Markets

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, March 02, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Much of the market's focus starting the week has turned to the potential impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (Crimea). As I am writing this post, S&P 500 futures are down just under 1% or 17.7 points to 1,839.90. The night is long so much can change as it relates to the market's ultimate reaction to the events in Ukraine on the first trading day of the week.A similar scenario played out in August 2008 during the Russia/Georgia conflict. At that time the market pretty much traded sideways unti...  Read more...

A Worsening Job Situation For The Unemployed

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, March 02, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Several reports issued over the last few weeks related to the employment market have generally not been positive. Last week the report on jobless claims showed an increase of 14,000. Econoday's view on the report:Jobless claims are not pointing to any improvement in the labor market with initial claims up 14,000 in the February 22 week to a 348,000 level that's just outside the high end of the Econoday consensus. The 4-week average is unchanged at 338,250 which is slightly higher than the month-...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: February 23, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, February 23, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
With the Sochi Winter Olympics coming to an end, sports enthusiasts can now begin to focus on college basketball's March Madness.  For investors though, last week's holiday shortened trading saw the S&P 500 Index close down fractionally. This felt like a win after January's market decline and subsequent rebound in February. All eyes continue to be on the Fed as they continue to taper QE activities. One article link in the magazine looks at the fact the Fed purchased over 70% of the net issuance ...  Read more...

Corporate Profit Margins Not At A Peak

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, February 23, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Morningstar economist, Francisco Torralba, Ph.D., CFA, recently published a report that looked at corporate profits broken down between profits generated internationally versus profits generated in the U.S. This distinction is important as many strategists contend the profits to GDP ratio, or as they call it profit margins, are at a peak and unsustainable, i.e., will mean revert in the near term. The chart that is often displayed to support this view is the following one:From The Blog of HORAN C...  Read more...

S&P 500 Companies Accelerate Buybacks

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, February 22, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
S&P Dow Jones Indices has reported preliminary fourth quarter 2013 buyback activity for S&P 500 companies. The report notes companies in the index increased the dollar amount of buybacks by more than 30% on a year over year basis: $129 billion in Q4 2013 versus $99 billion in Q4 2012. In spite of the increase in cost of buybacks in 2013 due to the market's 30%+ price advance in 2013, companies are expected to continue returning cash to shareholders via higher dividends and buybacks this year. Th...  Read more...

Market In Long Term Uptrend

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, February 20, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
A post we wrote yesterday after the market close noted the similarity of the S&P's recent market pattern to prior chart patterns. One market technician I follow is Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report. I have found Charles' technical analysis as some of the best. I am summarizing here; however, he believes chart patterns provide important insight into the market's near and long term direction. Today he linked to our article from yesterday and made the comment to his readers to note the recency bias i...  Read more...

A Market Consolidating Before New Highs Ahead?

Posted by David Templeton on Wednesday, February 19, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Year to date the S&P 500 Index is down approximately 1% on a price only basis; however, for investors, the start of the year has been anything but a smooth ride. Through early February the S&P 500 Index declined almost 6% before recovering most of the loss these past several weeks.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsThe question for investors is what lies ahead for the market. For traders, and not necessarily longer term investors, some consolidation of these recent gains would be healthy for...  Read more...

The Week Ahead Magazine: February 17, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Monday, February 17, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Monday was a holiday in the U.S. so investment markets were closed. This one day holiday provided investors some relief from a market that is only six weeks into 2014. Investors have navigated a volatile equity market beginning with a January where the S&P 500 Index decline 3.46% and so far in February the price only return for the S&P 500 Index is a positive 3.14%. It seems these mid single digit market pullbacks are becoming more the norm than the exception.From an earnings perspective, fourth...  Read more...

Dividend Payers A Losing Strategy In January

Posted by David Templeton on Saturday, February 15, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
As the below table shows, the dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index did not hold up so well during January's  market correction. The January average return of the payers equaled a negative 3.54%. The non-payers generated a positive return of .40%. Historically, dividend paying stocks generally hold up better during market corrections. This has not been the case over the course of the last year and a half though. We have touched on this topic in a few earlier posts, focusing on the fact traditiona...  Read more...

1929 Crash: Charts That Mislead Investors

Posted by David Templeton on Wednesday, February 12, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
A few questions have come up regarding the similarity of today's market chart pattern relative to the chart pattern in 1929 just before the crash at that time. The chart that has been circulating is similar to the one below that was created by Ryan Detrick, CMT of Schaeffer’s Investment Research, Inc.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsHowever, Ryan included another important chart that investors should view in conjunction with the above chart. His second chart displays both charts on a perce...  Read more...
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