Transports And Cyclical Sectors Leading

 March 1 2016     David Templeton
The transport index has made a sharp recovery, up nearly 10% since late January. There is some argument that under Dow Theory, a buy signal has been triggered. Jeffrey Saut, of Raymond James, published commentary yesterday, By The Side Of The Road, discussing this Dow Theory buy signal.In addition to cyclically exposed transports, several of the more cyclical sectors of the S&P 500 Index have disp...

The FANG Basket Of Stocks Gets Derailed

 February 28 2016     David Templeton
Investors not owning the basket of stocks know as the FANGs (Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX) and Google (GOOGL aka Alphabet)) in 2015 likely trailed the return of the broader market. The average return of the FANGs in 2015 equalled 83% versus the S&P 500 Index return of 1.4%.With the emotional propensity for investors to buy what feels good, if they purchased the FANG basket of stocks...

Are Emerging Markets The Trade Of The Decade?

 February 27 2016     David Templeton
In recent days, more strategists are indicating the emerging market asset class is providing investors with a 'trade of the decade" opportunity. The most recent is Robert Arnott and Christopher Brightman of Research Affiliates when they note in their February All Asset report,"Many investors mistake a bear market for diminished prospective returns. From the rear-view mirror, the bear market in eme...

Bearish Sentiment And Positive Uptick In Economic Reports May Translate To Higher Equity Prices

 February 27 2016     David Templeton
Evident from the below chart of the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the start to 2016 has been a difficult one for investors. January saw a sharp decline in the equity markets; however, the month of February is working to repair the January damage.We noted in a post at the end of the third weak of January, Sentiment Supportive Of Further Equity Gains, that sentiment data seemed...

E-Commerce Sales Continue At Double Digit Growth Rate

 February 18 2016     David Templeton
Yesterday, the U.S. Census Bureau released fourth quarter 2015 e-commerce sales data. The report confirmed the fact individuals are increasingly turning to the internet for their retail purchases. The orange line in the below chart shows as of the end of Q4 2015, e-commerce sales as a percentage of total sales increased to 8.6%. Also notable in the below chart is the blue line representing the YOY...

Increased Market Volatility Resulting In High Quality Stock Outperformance

 February 13 2016     David Templeton
Commensurate with the increase in the market's volatility that began late last year, high quality stock outperformance has accelerated this year. As volatility increases it is common for investors to seek the safety of higher quality equity holdings. The below chart displays the ratio of S&P's high quality index to the low quality index.The S&P Quality Ranking System measures growth and stability ...

Ex-Energy Forward Earnings Expectations Look Pretty Good

 February 12 2016     David Templeton
The list of headwinds facing the equity market seems to be growing longer every day. However, the top concern is the question of whether the economy is headed for a recession or not. In several prior posts, we have noted our view is a recession is not imminent. Certainly slow GDP growth continues to be the constant in this long recovery. Much of the market volatility though seems centered around t...

Weak Investor Sentiment Leading To Negative Fund Flows

 February 7 2016     David Templeton
The weak equity returns experienced by the markets since the beginning of the year have resulted in a low level of bullish investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and the S&P 500 Index are down on a year to date basis 7% and 8%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite Index has fared even worse and is down 12.9% this year. The lack of positive equity momentum and weak bullish sentime...

Weak Investor Sentiment Leading To Negative Fund Flows

 February 7 2016     David Templeton
The weak equity returns experienced by the markets since the beginning of the year have resulted in a low level of bullish investor sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index and the S&P 500 Index are down on a year to date basis 7% and 8%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite Index has fared even worse and is down 12.9% this year. The lack of positive equity momentum and weak bullish sentime...

The Dogs Catch A Bid

 February 6 2016     David Templeton
The Dogs of the Dow theory suggests investors select the ten stocks that have the highest dividend yield from the stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJIA) after the close of business on the last trading day of the year. Once the ten stocks are determined, an investor invests an equal dollar amount in each of the ten stocks and holds them for the entire next year. Below is the 2016 Dogs of t...
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