Is It Right To Be Bullish Near A Record Market High?

 June 2 2016     David Templeton
One outcome that comes from writing periodic content on our blog is we are held accountable for our various points of view whether they are right or wrong. No investor is going to be correct 100% of the time; however, being right more often than wrong enhances ones chance of better returns over the long run. So, as the S&P 500 Index is only 1.2% below its all time record closing high, being bullis...

Forget Your Password…Think P@ssPhrase

 June 1 2016     Anna Pfaehler
The following article was written by a colleague of mine, Christopher Cook, CFP®, Vice President, for the spring issue of the HORAN magazine. The article discusses the role that passwords play in mitigating the risk of an online security breach. I am sharing this article to underscore the importance of safe online consumer practices and how this correlates to your overall financial w...

An Allocation To International Small/Mid Cap Equities

 May 30 2016     David Templeton
One aspect that has faced investors over the past five years is the fact diversification has detracted from a mostly large cap U.S. equity allocation. Investments in high yield bonds and emerging markets generated negative returns, while investments in the NASDAQ and S&P 500 Composites resulted in double digit annualized returns over the most recent five year period.Looking at returns over the pas...

Bullish Investor Sentiment Lower Than Level Reached In 2009

 May 26 2016     David Templeton
The American Association of Individual Investors reported another decline in bullish sentiment this morning. Bullish sentiment was reported at 17.8% and comes in below the level reached at the depths of the financial crisis in 2009. The lowest reading in 2009 was 18.9% and occurred in early March of that year. A number of market technical indicators have turned positive as we noted in a few posts ...

Dow Jones Industrial Average Celebrates Its 120th Year

 May 25 2016     David Templeton
On May 26th the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) will celebrate its 120th year. In honor of this feat, S&P Dow Jones Indices published a white paper containing a number of facts and figures around the Index.  For example, the best trading day of the week for the DJIA is actually Saturday so maybe we should bring back Saturday trading. From 1887 to 1952 stocks were traded on the NYSE from 10:00a...

Bulls Attempting To Take Control On Positive Technicals

 May 24 2016     David Templeton
The market is in a seasonally weak period, i.e., all the sell in May mantra, and this has created a number of bearish technical setups for the S&P 500 Index. I am not showing all of them; however, the bulls are making an effort to kill off the head and shoulder top pattern (dashed lines). This market action is creating two potential bull flag breakouts. The breakout is also resulting in the S&P 50...

A Mismatch Between Investor Sentiment And Allocation Surveys

 May 21 2016     David Templeton
On a monthly basis the American Association of Individual Investors surveys its members on the asset allocation of their members investment holdings. In the April survey, on average, its members noted their equity exposure equaled about 64%, above the average of 60%. The bond allocation was equal to the long term average, while cash came in below average. What is interesting about these stated all...

Equity Market Headwinds Positioned To Subside

 May 20 2016     David Templeton
One thing investors in equities know is the market has essentially traded sideways for nearly two years. During this two year period, this sideways chop has included sharp pullbacks, one in late 2014, two in 2015 and the latest in February of this year. For long term investors this can be disconcerting for sure, so what headwinds are influencing the equity markets and will they subside any time so...

How to Calculate Social Security Spousal Benefits

 May 10 2016     Anna Pfaehler
Part of my role is to serve as a resource for our clients and advisors by answering their financial planning questions. Today’s post highlights a question I’ve received several times in various forms. Q: A wife started taking Social Security at age 62 and is now 70. The husband now wants to file for benefits at age 70. Will the wife’s benefit increase? A: In general, spousal b...

Continued Growth In Oil Supply Likely Leads To Lower Crude Oil Price

 May 8 2016     David Templeton
WTI Crude has rebounded over 70% to $44.60/bbl from its $26/bbl low reached on February 11th. This price recovery has occurred while supply continues to grow at an unabated pace as can be seen in the below chart.The U.S. Energy Information Administration's summer 2016 fuels outlook (PDF) is forecasting continued supply growth with the expectation oil prices will average $35/bbl this summer. Drivin...
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