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Risk Versus Volatility

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 07, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Howard Marks, Chairman of Oaktree Capital Markets released his most recent client letter, Risk Revisted. As Marks notes in his letter, he dedicated three chapters of his book, The Most Important Thing, on the subject of risk. In his client letter, he expands on risk and discusses 24 different forms of risk. A couple of highlights from his client letter:There’s little I believe in more than Albert Einstein’s observation: “Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be c...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: September 7, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, September 07, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
Last week's holiday shortened trading saw fractional gains in most major U.S equity indexes except for the small cap Russell 200 Index. The small cap index declined .4% on the week and only remains up .6% for the year. Small caps continue to lag the broader S&P 500 Index which is higher by 8.6% year to date through Friday's close. The one piece of weak economic news reported last week was the +142,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. The consensus estimate prior to the release was an anticipated i...  Read more...

Individual Investors Not Overly Bullish

Posted by David Templeton on Thursday, September 04, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
This week's sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors notes bullish sentiment declined 7.25 percentage points to 44.67%. Two thirds of the decline went into the bearish category while the other one third went into the neutral category.  A less volatile measure is the 8-period moving average of the bullish sentiment reading and it rose to 38.3% from last week's 37.4%. The 8-period moving average is not indicating either an overly bullish sentiment or an overly bearish...  Read more...

Current Stock Rally Below Average In Magnitude

Posted by David Templeton on Wednesday, September 03, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
"With the S&P 500 trading above 2,000 for the first time in history, today's chart provides some perspective to current rally by plotting all major S&P 500 rallies of the last 82 years. With the S&P 500 up 91% since its October 2011 lows (the 2011 correction resulted in a significant 19.4% decline), the current rally is slightly below average in magnitude above average in duration. In fact, of the 23 rallies plotted on today's chart, the current rally would rank 7th in duration."Notes:- A major ...  Read more...

Dividend Payers' Return Lags Non Payers In August

Posted by David Templeton on Tuesday, September 02, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
The equal weighted return of the dividend payers in the S&P 500 Index continues to lag the return of the non payers in August. As a consolation though, the payers equal weighted return is ahead of the cap weighted S&P 500 Index on a YTD and 12-month basis.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsSource: S&P Dow Jones IndicesThis equal weighted outperformance of the non-payers has carried over into the performance of Guggenheim's equal weighted S&P 500 Index (RSP) versus the cap weighted S&P Index ...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: August 31, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Monday, September 01, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
The strong equity returns in the just completed month of August prove historical expectations do not always play out as the data might suggest. As we noted in our post just before August began, Is This The Much Awaited Market Pullback?, the average August return for the past 10 years has been negative.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsWith the strong August returns several market pundits are reiterating their often repeated call for a major market correction. A correction would not surprise...  Read more...

Achieving Excess Returns Around FOMC Meetings

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 31, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
David Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices, recently highlighted research results showing excess returns are generated around FOMC meeting dates. The research paper, Stock Returns Over The FOMC Cycle, evaluates the average 5-day return minus the treasury bill rate. The paper shows statistically significant excess returns are generated in the five day period in advance of the FOMC announcement.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsSource: Stock Returns Over The FOMC...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine: August 24, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 24, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
This past week saw the S&P 500 Index set a record closing price of 1,992.37 on Thursday. One article in this week's magazine notes the equity market has gone over 1,020 days without a 10% correction. Investors seem content on buying market "dips". This most recent dip saw the market decline 3.94% from its July 24th closing price down to 1,909.57 on August 7th. The "V-shaped" recovery from August 7th has seen the market advance 4.3% to Friday's close.From The Blog of HORAN Capital AdvisorsThe onl...  Read more...
Almost two weeks ago we noted the S&P 500 Index appeared to look more attractive from a technical perspective. Since the market reached a near term low of 1,909.57 on August 7th, the S&P 500 Index has rallied 4.13% through Friday to close at 1,988.40. In addition to a positive technical perspective at that time, recent economic and company reports indicate potential strength ahead. In looking at several economic factors, last week's report on The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index showed ...  Read more...

Week Ahead Magazine For August 17, 2014

Posted by David Templeton on Sunday, August 17, 2014 in Wealth Management | Comments (0)
After the market's close this past Tuesday we wrote a post discussing how the market technicals had turned more positive and the market did not disappoint. For this past week the equity market did turn higher with the major U.S. indices posting weekly gains. The standout was the Nasdaq Composite Index returning 2.2% and now up 6.9% on the year. The much watched small cap index, the Russell 2000, managed to generate a gain of .9%; however, the index remains down 1.9% year to date. Last week's new...  Read more...
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