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Entries for 2016

The Final 2016 Dogs Of The Dow Performance And the New 2017 Dow Dog Changes

 December 31 2016     David Templeton
The 20.5% return for the 2016 Dogs of the Dow exceeded the performance of both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index in 2016. The Dow Dogs returned 20.5% versus 16.4% for the Dow Index and 12.0% for the S&P 500 Index. The best performer of the Dogs was Caterpillar (CAT) up 42.2% with the weakest performer being Pfizer up only 4.5%.File (xls)For the coming year, 2017, two of the ex...

Most Read Articles From Our Blog In 2016

 December 31 2016     David Templeton
Below is a list of the most read articles on our firm's blog in 2016. Our generally bullish view on the equity market for 2016 proved rewarding for our clients. We stuck to our bullish call in January when the market was down 8% as noted in the second article link below. When the market began to sell off again into late May, we highlighted our view that equity market headwinds were positioned to s...

Recent Returns Remain Far Below the Longer Term Average

 December 28 2016     David Templeton
It wasn't until 2013 that the S&P 500 Index broke out 17 year time frame the annualized return (price only) for the S&P 500 Index is approximately 2.59%.The low single digit return noted above is far below the return the market generated in the 20 year period that began in 1980 and ran up to the technology bubble in 2000. The annualized price only return for this 20 year period equaled 13.9%.In sp...

Has Broadly Improved Sentiment Pushed The Equity Market To An Extreme?

 December 22 2016     David Templeton
The market's advance since the presidential election has certainly been remarkable. Much of the gain is being attributed to anticipated policies being proposed by a new Trump administration. Obviously none of the proposed policies have been put in place as of yet, but the market is already weighing in with positive expectations. A common thought is whether or not the market has gotten ahead of its...

François Trahan Bearish On Stocks In 2017

 December 17 2016     David Templeton
Whether one is bullish or bearish on equities at any particular time, it is important to read and evaluate opinions that are contrary to ones own. In a recent WealthTrack interview Trahan, voted the #1 portfolio strategist in 10 out of the last 11 years by Institutional Investor Magazine, conducted with Consuelo Mack, François Trahan provides his reasoning for his fairly bearish view on stocks in ...

2017 Income Tax Proposals

 December 13 2016     Anna Pfaehler
Income tax reform is perpetually a political football. With Republicans in control of both the legislative and executive branches of the government, we are likely to see substantial income tax reform in 2017 instead of the usual “punt.” At HORAN we are watching the plays develop and considering how our clients may be affected. The following is an overview of what we may see in the next...

Investors May Want to Look At Sectors That Worked In The 1980's

 December 11 2016     David Templeton
Subsequent to the election last month I published a post suggesting the equity market going forward was beginning to resemble the bull market of the 1950's and 1980's, A decade is a long time and market leadership will rotate in and out of sectors based on the business cycle. In that earlier post I noted the potential commonality to the current market compared to those prior decades related to pol...

Emerging Markets, The Dollar and Interest Rates

 December 10 2016     David Templeton
This morning I published a few tweets and charts on our Twitter site reviewing emerging market equity performance and the impact US Dollar strength has on emerging market equity performance. Additionally, interest rates influence US Dollar movement and rising interest rates tend to result in a stronger Dollar, all else being equal. Below are those tweets.Ones view on the direction of the US Dollar...

Dow Dogs: The Pursuit Of Yield Coming To An End

 December 9 2016     David Templeton
With the passing of the election last month, expectations in place before the election seem to have been turned on its head. Dire forecast were anticipated if Trump were to somehow pull out a win. Fast forward to a month past election day and current market sentiment is far from what most expected and the equity market is reflecting this in its performance with the S&P 500 Index up 8.4% from the 1...

Small Cap Stocks No Longer Cheap Relative To Large Caps

 December 3 2016     David Templeton
Subsequent to the election, the equity 'risk on' trade has been most evident in small company stocks with the S&P 600 Small Cap Index returning 13.0% since 11/4 versus a return of 5.4% for the S&P 500 Index.In fact, small cap stocks have been outperforming large caps since the market pullback in February of this year. Benefiting the return of small cap stocks is the fact, based on their respective...
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