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Entries for 2018

Stock Buybacks Up 57.8% In Third Quarter

 December 23 2018     David Templeton
S&P Dow Jones Indices recently reported preliminary dividend and buyback information for the third quarter ending 9/30/2018. On a year over year basis stock buybacks for S&P 500 companies are collectively up 57.8% for Q3 2018. For the 12-months ending 9/30/2018 total buybacks increased 39.1%. Relative to buybacks, dividends increased a much smaller 9.7% resulting in combined dividends plus buyback...

With Abysmal Investor Sentiment A Market Bottom Might Be Near

 December 21 2018     David Templeton
Simply noting that the S&P 500 Index is down 12.45% month to date through the close on 12/21/2018, this pretty much sums up the damage inflicted on investors by the market. After a strong start to the year, and following a rewarding 2017, the S&P 500 index had a return of 9.62% through late September. In nearly three short months thereafter, the S&P 500 Index has declined 19.23% from its high, lea...

Trend In Index Earnings More Important Then A Slowing Rate Of Earnings Growth

 December 13 2018     David Templeton
One issue strategists are highlighting of late is the fact the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 Index in 2019 is expected to decelerate from the mid to high 20+% level this year to the mid single digit percentage level in 2019. Some have indicated this slowing earnings growth rate may negatively impact U.S. equity returns next year. Of course the strong rate of earnings growth this year is due...

Steep Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment

 December 13 2018     David Templeton
The American Association of Individual Investors reported sentiment data for the week ending December 12, 2018. The sentiment survey reported the largest change in the difference between bullish and bearish sentiment since April 11, 2013. The swing in the current week equaled -35.4 percentage points.In terms of bullish sentiment, the level of 20.9% is the lowest bullish sentiment level since May 2...

Tight Labor Market A Headwind For Business Sentiment

 December 11 2018     David Templeton
Although the November NFIB Small Business Optimism Index remains at a high level of 104.8, today's report is the third consecutive decline in the optimism index. The index high of 108.8 was reached in August of this year.A constraint on growth and optimism seems to be related to the tight labor market. The category cited most frequently as the single most important problem facing business was the ...

Investment Fund Outflows Dominate

 December 9 2018     David Templeton
The most recent flow data for ETF's and mutual funds reported by ICI last week notes outflows occurred in nearly all of the broad asset categories. One exception was a small positive flow into commodity oriented investments. Source: ICIFollowing the large $18.6 billion bond investment outflow for the week ending 10/31/2018, bond investments continued to be sold by investors. Below investment grade...

Trying To Make Sense Of China/US Trade Issues

 December 7 2018     David Templeton
What seems to be influencing the market the most at the moment is the trade issues with China and the U.S. Jeff Miller who writes at the Dash of Insight blog published a short article yesterday that seems to get to some of the main issues surrounding trade and the equity markets. A couple of highlights from the article follow, but the entire post is a worthwhile read. Jeff notes the market's react...

GM Restructuring News Not A Sign Of A Slowing Economy

 November 26 2018     David Templeton
Today General Motors (GM) announced a restructuring that will cut 14,000 positions and the possibility of closing five auto manufacturing plants. Some headlines attributed the restructuring to an economy that may be slowing. However, when one reviews the data that comprise new sales of automobiles and light trucks, the exact opposite conclusion is drawn. A divergence has developed in the sale of c...

Low Level Of Bullishness Means Equity Market Bottom Maybe Near

 November 22 2018     David Templeton
Investor sentiment continues a trend of turning less bullish. Today's Sentiment Survey report from the American Association of Individual Investors noted individual investor bullish sentiment decline 9.8 percentage points to 25.3%. Neutral sentiment declined 1.3 percentage points with the result that bearish sentiment rose 11.2 percentage points. The net result is the bull/bear spread of -21.8 pp ...

Institutional And Individual Investors More Bearish On Equities

 November 15 2018     David Templeton
At the end of October the American Association of Individual Investors reported individual investor bullish sentiment was 28.0%, one standard deviation below the bullishness average. Sentiment measures are contrarian ones and are most actionable at their extremes. October's reading was certainly not an extreme level; however, the reading was at a low level of bullishness for the individual investo...
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