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Equity Market Nears Record High And Investors Become Less Bullish

 September 1 2017     David Templeton
As the equity market nears a record high, both institutional and individual investors continue to indicate they are less bullish. The NAAIM Exposure Index continues to decline with long equity exposure down to 77%.Yesterday's AAII Sentiment Survey report showed bullish sentiment fell another 3.1 percentage points to 25% and now is below the minus one standard deviation level for bullish sentiment....

DowDupont Will Be Included In Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

 August 26 2017     David Templeton
As many readers know, effective September 1, Dow Chemical (DOW) and DuPont (DD) will merge into one company, DowDupont (DWDP). Effective that same day, S&P Dow Jones Indices will replace DuPont, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, with DowDuPont. S&P notes,"Replacing du Pont with the new DowDuPont allows the Dow Jones Industrial Average to maintain its exposure to the Materials ...

Large Decline In Bullish Investor Sentiment

 August 25 2017     David Templeton
This week's AAII Sentiment Survey reported a 6.1% decline in bullish investor sentiment to 28.1%. The bullish sentiment level is now near one standard deviation below the long term average. Nearly all of the decline in the bullish sentiment showed up in the bearish number which increased 5.5%. The bull/bear spread is now -10.4 percentage points.The NAAIM Exposure Index report this week also shows ...

A Vampire Sequel

 August 21 2017     Anna Pfaehler
Can vampires go outside during a total eclipse? I have no idea. But my “Why Vampires are Wealthy” post from a few weeks ago has created some buzz. So while everyone is talking about the sun today, or lack of sun, I’m revisiting vampires and fulfilling a request to look at what would happen if you “got bit” while young and started saving at the beginning of your career...

Dr. KOSPI's Protocol For Global Growth Diagnosis

 August 20 2017     David Templeton
It has been about two weeks and market sentiment seems to have quickly turned decidedly bearish and the S&P 500 Index is down only 2.2% from its high. I will not list all the bearish commentary over the last few days, but we even pushed out some thoughts this weekend on our Twitter account (@HORANCapitalAdv) that leaned a little bearish. A couple of reasons for the increased bearishness might be t...

No Slowdown In Growth Of e-Commerce Sales

 August 18 2017     David Templeton
It seems nearly every company reporting earnings now references a strategy to deal with Amazon (AMZN) due to Amazon's command of e-commerce sales. Beyond the simple delivery of packages and hard goods, AMZN is moving into many other areas like grocery, air transportation, etc. I discussed this in a post a few months ago. In that post I highlighted the profitability of Amazon's cloud business (AWS)...

The Economy May Not Be At Full Employment

 August 18 2017     David Templeton
One economic conundrum has been the sub-par growth rate in average hourly earnings in spite of what appears to be an economy operating at full employment. In a fully employed economic environment, wages generally see fairly strong upside pressure and this becomes a concern with the Federal Reserve due to the upward pressure placed on the inflation rate. As the below chart does show, average hourly...

Investor Fund Flows Favoring Bonds And Not Equities

 August 6 2017     David Templeton
The equity market has gone over a year without a pullback of at least 5% or more. The last 5% decline occurred in mid-June 2016 when, over a two week period, the market fell 5.5%. Even in the run up to the election last year, the equity market did not close down over 5%. This lack of volatility is showing up in popular volatility measures like the VIX, but the VIX may not be a good measure of expe...

The S&P 500 Index Is Expensive And Has Mostly Been So Since The Early 1990's

 August 5 2017     David Templeton
One can cite any number of stock valuation measures and conclude U.S. equities look expensive or are at least trading above their long term average valuation measures. In this environment one might conclude stocks are priced for perfection with little margin for error. Of course this might certainly be the case, but is this an uncommon position for the equity market? As the shaded areas in the bel...

Spending Time

 August 3 2017     Anna Pfaehler
We bought a Roomba. With a dog and a cat there are always tumbleweeds of pet fur rolling across the floors.  Agador Spartacus – we named our Roomba after Hank Azaria’s character from the classic film The Birdcage - works while we are away and we come home to a much more presentable home. We spent money to save time and it has been worth every cent. A recent study published in th...
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