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Buybacks Decline In Q3 2016, But Cash At Record Level

 January 5 2017     David Templeton
At the end of December S&P Dow Jones Indices reported information on S&P 500 buybacks and dividends for Q3 2016. The preliminary report noted quarter over quarter buybacks decline 12% and year over year buybacks fell 25.5%. The continued decline in buybacks may be a result of companies retaining cash due to the uncertainty surrounding the November election. Dividends were up fractionally QOQ and u...

Winter 2016 Investor Letter: Rising Confidence And The Populist Movement

 January 3 2017     David Templeton
In our Fall 2016 Investor Letter we discussed how emotions tend to run high around certain periods like the recent U.S. election. We noted in that newsletter that emotional investment decisions can drive investors to reduce their stock market exposure and harm long term returns. Certainly, the equity market performance following the the November election was one that strongly rewarded investors th...

Equity Market Technicals Still Leaning Bullish

 January 3 2017     David Templeton
Yesterday I wrote that investor sentiment is broadly more bullish at the start of 2017 versus the beginning of 2016. Elevated bullish sentiment tends to be a contrarian indicator and can coincide with near term market tops. Now having noted the heightened sentiment measures, but shifting to a technical view of the market, some market excess has been worked off in the last few weeks of December wit...

Investor Sentiment More Bullish Than A Year Ago

 January 2 2017     David Templeton
In 2015 investors had to contend with a very volatile equity market during the summer months. On August 24, 2015 the Dow fell 1,000 points intraday before closing down 588 points. This volatility extended into October with the end result, the S&P 500 Index was up only 1.4% for all of 2015. This level of volatility and flat returns left investors anything but bullish going into 2016. As fate would ...

The Final 2016 Dogs Of The Dow Performance And the New 2017 Dow Dog Changes

 December 31 2016     David Templeton
The 20.5% return for the 2016 Dogs of the Dow exceeded the performance of both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index in 2016. The Dow Dogs returned 20.5% versus 16.4% for the Dow Index and 12.0% for the S&P 500 Index. The best performer of the Dogs was Caterpillar (CAT) up 42.2% with the weakest performer being Pfizer up only 4.5%.File (xls)For the coming year, 2017, two of the ex...

Most Read Articles From Our Blog In 2016

 December 31 2016     David Templeton
Below is a list of the most read articles on our firm's blog in 2016. Our generally bullish view on the equity market for 2016 proved rewarding for our clients. We stuck to our bullish call in January when the market was down 8% as noted in the second article link below. When the market began to sell off again into late May, we highlighted our view that equity market headwinds were positioned to s...

Recent Returns Remain Far Below the Longer Term Average

 December 28 2016     David Templeton
It wasn't until 2013 that the S&P 500 Index broke out 17 year time frame the annualized return (price only) for the S&P 500 Index is approximately 2.59%.The low single digit return noted above is far below the return the market generated in the 20 year period that began in 1980 and ran up to the technology bubble in 2000. The annualized price only return for this 20 year period equaled 13.9%.In sp...

Has Broadly Improved Sentiment Pushed The Equity Market To An Extreme?

 December 22 2016     David Templeton
The market's advance since the presidential election has certainly been remarkable. Much of the gain is being attributed to anticipated policies being proposed by a new Trump administration. Obviously none of the proposed policies have been put in place as of yet, but the market is already weighing in with positive expectations. A common thought is whether or not the market has gotten ahead of its...

François Trahan Bearish On Stocks In 2017

 December 17 2016     David Templeton
Whether one is bullish or bearish on equities at any particular time, it is important to read and evaluate opinions that are contrary to ones own. In a recent WealthTrack interview Trahan, voted the #1 portfolio strategist in 10 out of the last 11 years by Institutional Investor Magazine, conducted with Consuelo Mack, François Trahan provides his reasoning for his fairly bearish view on stocks in ...

2017 Income Tax Proposals

 December 13 2016     Anna Pfaehler
Income tax reform is perpetually a political football. With Republicans in control of both the legislative and executive branches of the government, we are likely to see substantial income tax reform in 2017 instead of the usual “punt.” At HORAN we are watching the plays develop and considering how our clients may be affected. The following is an overview of what we may see in the next...
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