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Powerful Sector Rotation May Need A Breather

 November 16 2016     David Templeton
The market action following last week's election has seen powerful rotation among stock market sectors and industries. In my last post I highlighted this movement along with stocks and industries that are benefiting from this rotation and industries that are not benefiting. I noted a potential caution due to the fact the targeted sectors seems to be a consensus trade by investors and the moves may...

Investors Adjusting Investments As A Result Of The Election Outcome

 November 13 2016     David Templeton
This post is more of a chartfest to feature information I ran across over the weekend from various sources but related to investment topics relevant to potential policy changes under a President-Elect Trump administration. Investors know the equity market reacted favorably to the election outcome last week; however, some market segments did far better than others. Although the night is long, the f...

Toss Aside Your Political Leanings, The Equity Market Is

 November 10 2016     David Templeton
Tossing aside ones political leanings, the stock and bond market are telegraphing positive results from a Trump presidency as it relates to the economy. I briefly touched on the bond market in yesterday's post and below is another chart of the 10-year Treasury yield-the yield continues to move higher.The broad advance in the market relative to the meltdown in futures during election night/morning ...

The Market The Day After The Election: Emotion Versus Fundamentals

 November 9 2016     David Templeton
In Monday's post I highlighted the importance of separating ones politics from their portfolio. The market's reaction to yesterday's election outcome is a perfect example why this is important. As election results trickled in last night and it became apparent Donald Trump would be the 45th President of the United States, equity futures sold off sharply. The day after election sell offs are not uni...

Election Day Is Finally Upon Us

 November 7 2016     David Templeton
In one day the S&P 500 Index recovered six of the nine days of losses incurred over the last two weeks. Today the S&P 500 Index recovered 46.34 points or 2.22% versus the 66.15 point loss (-3.07%) incurred from 10/25 through 11/4. Today's rally did not occur on exceptionally high volume, but the stochastic indicator has turned positive.Charles Kirk of The Kirk Report made a couple of observations ...

Defensive Market Sectors Not So Defensive During Equity Market Pullback

 November 4 2016     David Templeton
With today's market close the S&P 500 Index has been down for nine consecutive trading days. The index is down 4.2% from the August 15 high, but remains up 4.1% year to date. However, during the pullback from the August high, most of the traditionally defensive sectors have been the worst performing ones. As can been seen in the below bar chart, REITs are down 11.1%, health care is down 10.9%, tel...

Investors Positioning For The Worst In U.S. Election Outcome

 November 3 2016     David Templeton
In five days the U.S. election will be behind us, absent a contested outcome. Through yesterday's close, the S&P 500 Index has been down seven consecutive days putting the Index down 4.2% from its August 15 close. This weakness in the markets is now showing up in technical indicators like the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio. At the close Wednesday, the equity put/call ratio was reported at .99 which is...

Bonds And Bond-Like Equities Adjusting To Higher Interest Rate Environment

 October 29 2016     David Templeton
The Federal Reserve meets during the first week of November to decide whether or not to increase interest rates. The probability of a rate hike in November stands at only 8.8% while increasing to 63.3% at the December meeting. With the elevated likelihood of an interest rate hike before year end, income focused investments, both fixed income and bond like equities, are adjusting to this potential ...

U.S. Government Has A Spending Problem

 October 27 2016     David Templeton
As of the end of the second quarter the U.S. government's budget deficit is once again widening and stands at $664 billion compared to $543 billion at the end of 2015. As can be seen in the below chart, government outlays as a percentage of GDP equals 22.4% and above the long run average of 20.3%. Additionally, government revenue as a percentage of GDP equals 18.8% versus the long run average of 1...

Entitlement Math

 October 20 2016     Anna Pfaehler
Client A: “I’ve worked my whole life, earning far more than Client B. Why is my benefit not larger than his?” Two reasons:  Wages subject to Social Security are capped. In 2016, only the first $118,500 of earned income is subject to Social Security taxes (FICA). The income used to calculate your Social Security benefit is likewise caped. Someone who earns $350,000 ...
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