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Biases Influence Investment Decisions

 November 9 2017     David Templeton
Every investor makes investment decisions that are influenced by ones biases that form over time. These biases may come in many forms but they tend to fall into a couple of categories, emotional or cognitive. I mention this because it is not that uncommon that I sit down to write a blog post on a certain topic thinking the post's conclusion will go in one direction, but end up with a different con...

Investment Opportunities Outside The U.S.

 November 6 2017     David Templeton
In a post yesterday I somewhat rhetorically titled the post wondering if the equity market was at a top. In short, I do not know, but offered suggestions for investors about reviewing their asset allocation vis-à-vis their spending needs.Not all markets have traveled the same path as the S&P 500 Index though. A number of markets outside the U.S have lagged the U.S. since the end of the financial c...

Is This The Market Top?

 November 5 2017     David Templeton
I read an individual's commentary this weekend that was titled Is This As Good As It Gets, and I will have more comments on this later in this post, but it coincides with some clients/investors inquiring whether they should raise cash now. The 'raise cash now' question is certainly understandable when one looks at the strength of the market since the February low last year, up nearly 40% on a pric...

Planning Potpourri

 November 3 2017     Anna Pfaehler
I field many questions from clients and colleagues every day. Here are a few recent ones from the trenches: Do I Need to Pay Estimated Taxes? Most people have their taxes withheld from their earnings, pensions, or retirement plan distributions. However, those who do not have withholding, or their withholding is not sufficient, must make estimated tax payments. These are made quarterly to cover y...

Individual And Investment Manager Sentiment Is Diverging

 November 2 2017     David Templeton
At the end of August bullish investor sentiment reached a year low of 25% and since that time individual investor sentiment has risen to 45.1% as reported by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) today. During this time period the S&P 500 Index has increased nearly 5%, providing some support to the contrarian nature of the individual sentiment report.Conversely, the National Asso...

The Time Period Matters For Outperformance: High Beta Versus Low Volatility

 October 29 2017     David Templeton
I have read commentary over the last few days noting the outperformance of the PowerShares High Beta Index (SPHB) versus its counterpart, the PowerShares Low Volatility Index (SPLV) over the past 1-year time frame. However, much of this outperformance was generated in the couple of months following the November election.When looking at the year to date performance of the high beta versus low volat...

Sizable Declines In A Few Individual Stocks; Time To Review Allocations

 October 28 2017     David Templeton
Much is going right as it relates to the equity markets around the globe; however, this past week saw the market punish companies that reported earnings that did not match market expectations. The below 2-week chart only lists a few of those companies, but companies like Celgene (CELG) down 28.1% and Expedia (EXPE) down 17.5% suffered much of their losses on one or just a few trading days.These sh...

An Increasing Dividend Payout Ratio Is A Positive Indicator For The Market

 October 22 2017     David Templeton
Admittedly, in an equity market run investors are currently experiencing, i.e., the second longest run without a 20% pullback, a common theme that continues to seep into ones thinking, including mine, is when is the market going to experience a bear market correction of 20% or more. Even a double digit pullback is a scarcity as the below chart of the S&P 500 Index shows. The last double digit pull...

Citgroup Economic Surprise Indices Have Little Bearing On Equity Market Performance

 October 15 2017     David Templeton
One set of indices that seems to cycle from positive to negative over a relatively short period of time are the Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices (CESI). This aspect of these indices means they gain prominence from a commentary standpoint when they reach high and low points. What is important for investors to know is the CESI is a mean reverting index, that by design, cycles between highs and lo...

Synchronized Global Growth

 October 14 2017     David Templeton
Much of the sentiment and global market data continues to come in on the positive side of the ledger. Friday's University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment jumped six points to 101.1 for October and is the highest reading in thirteen years. As reported by Econoday, "The expectations component is up nearly 7 points to 91.3 with the component for current conditions posting a nearly 5 point gain to 116....
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